Every post here ends with odds: how likely a breakthrough is, and when it is likely to arrive. Now all of those odds live in one place. Type a birth year into What Will You Live to See? and it lines up more than 130 breakthroughs we track, from robotaxis and fusion power to drugs that treat aging, in the order they are likely to arrive, with the age of the person typing beside each step. The next three years are free for everyone; the full timeline, every step to the end of the board, is for paid subscribers.
How it reads
Each breakthrough gets two numbers, because "when" and "whether" are different questions.
Likely by: the year it becomes more likely than not, provided the key breakthroughs behind it come through.
Chance it works: our honest odds that those breakthroughs come through at all. A 90% item is close to a sure thing; a 30% item comes through about three times in ten.
One example from the board today: an FDA-approved drug to treat aging itself is likely by 2033, provided the key breakthroughs come through, and our odds that they do are 55%. For someone born in 1985, that is age 48.
What's under the hood
It grows every morning. A new step joins the timeline the day the post behind it publishes, and every step links to that post.
One set of numbers. The calculator reads the same odds as the charts in our posts, so the two always agree.
Digital patients. Medical steps assume computer copies of people start standing in for some human testing around 2033. One box shows the slower timeline without them.
Private. The birth year never leaves the page.
There is a button to copy the result and share it. We would love to see what people find. Try it here →
The calculator is free for everyone. Paid subscribers get the reasoning behind every number inside each post, and Founding Futurists vote on the next Some Assembly Required.