TL;DR
Tesla says it is now building humanoid robots on a production line that used to make cars. The company tore out its old Model S and Model X line in Fremont, Calif., in 46 days and put its Optimus robot in its place, by its own account. Elon Musk is talking about 20,000 robots a week, about a million a year, within a year or a little more. If that comes anywhere close, humanoid robots stop being demos and start being an industrial product, the way cars became one. The catch: Tesla has not said how many it has built or what they cost, outside buyers wait until around the end of 2027, and factories get them before homes do.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 6 milestones, starting with "Tesla releases a video of Optimus doing unscripted tasks by 2026"; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.