TL;DR
The dream of hopping over a jammed freeway in an electric aircraft now has a calendar date attached to its next big step. Joby Aviation, which is racing Archer to certify an air taxi in the U.S., has finished three of the five stages of FAA certification and is targeting its next formal flight-test phase, called Type Inspection Authorization testing, for the first half of 2027, according to a report on its third-quarter results. Its fourth stage was 83% done on Joby's side by Oct. 30. Paid, certified rides come after that test phase, and Joby has $2.2 billion in the bank to get there. On Monday the Air Force also put nearly $37 million into the self-flying software meant to fly these taxis without a pilot (our story). Our odds that a paying passenger rides an air taxi in a U.S. city by 2028: 45%. For the full odds on certification, rides and pilotless flight, and the timeline of breakthroughs that leads there, subscribe.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.