TL;DR
The first humanoid robots that people outside Tesla get to work with may arrive the way many cars and phones do now: on a monthly plan. Asked on Nov. 6 whether Tesla would rent or sell its Optimus robot, Elon Musk told an investor conference, "I think probably rent them." He also agreed that building each robot would cost Tesla about $30,000 at first, roughly the cost of a car, falling toward $20,000 over time. That is Tesla's own cost, not a price, and no rental fee has been named. Renting changes the math for a business or a household: no five-figure purchase up front, and a company that owns, maintains and updates the machine. Tesla's factories get the robots first, with outside deliveries aimed at about the end of 2027. Our odds that Tesla is renting Optimus to outside customers by 2028: 45%. To see the full odds board and the timeline of breakthroughs between a factory robot and one in a home, subscribe.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.