TL;DR
The robot that folds laundry, keeps an older parent company or carries boxes on a factory floor may depend as much on trade rules as on engineering. Since July 28 a federal rule has blocked new foreign-made robot models from U.S. sale, and Chinese companies build about 95% of the world's humanoids. On Oct. 23 the analyst firm IDC put a price on it: U.S. humanoid revenue in 2030 projected to land 58% below its earlier forecast, more than $6 billion that would have been spent and now will not, by IDC's model. For American families, that could mean fewer cheap imported home robots for years and a market led, for now, by U.S.-built machines. For factories and warehouses, U.S. makers already have orders in hand.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 5 milestones, starting with "A new foreign-made humanoid model wins conditional U.S. approval by pledging U.S. production by 2028"; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.