TL;DR
NASA is planning two crewed Moon landings in a single year, 2028, and then a landing every year after that. Those would be the first people on the Moon since the Apollo era. The catch is that both landers are commercial machines that have never flown, and one of them depends on a trick nobody has pulled off yet: pumping super-cold rocket fuel from one ship to another in orbit. If that works in early 2027, the Moon stops being a place people visited once and becomes a place with a schedule. If it slips, the landing slips with it, and the first visits will still be measured in hours, not months.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 6 milestones, starting with "SpaceX completes its first in-space propellant transfer by 2027"; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.