TL;DR
The battery that powers the next decade may not need lithium at all. Sodium-ion cells, built from one of the most common elements on Earth and needing no cobalt or nickel, already ship in China, and a GM-backed startup now has $108 million to start making them for the American power grid in early 2027. Meanwhile, solid-state cells, the long-promised upgrade for electric cars, are moving from pilot plants toward real factory lines, and a Chinese lab has built a cell that stores roughly twice the energy per pound of today's car batteries. If those lines deliver, grid storage gets cheaper and less dependent on contested minerals, and cars, drones and aircraft get lighter, longer-range batteries. Nearly every commercial number in this story is still a company claim.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 6 milestones, starting with "Peak Energy's Sacramento sodium-ion factory starts production by 2027"; and every source.