TL;DR
Drones are cheap, and the missiles fired to stop them are not. A laser burns a drone out of the sky using electricity, so its makers pitch each shot as costing far less than a missile. On Nov. 11 the American company AeroVironment said an unnamed Middle Eastern country placed a $405 million order for its LOCUST X3 drone-killing lasers, one of the first lasers sold on the open export market rather than built for a single government's own program. Israel, meanwhile, says its Iron Beam laser shield needs about 14 batteries to make a real difference, and aims to have its lasers more fully woven into its air defenses by the end of 2026. Laser guards against drones are becoming something a country can simply order. Our odds on when that buyer's lasers stand guard, and the timeline of breakthroughs behind them, are below the line; to see them, subscribe.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.



