My A.I. Psychosis

My A.I. Psychosis

Japan Has Launched a Rover Toward a Moon of Mars

Japan's MMX left Oct. 19 to land on Phobos and return its dust in 2031, while the 2026 Mars window passes with no Starship and orbital refueling still undemonstrated.

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My A.I. Psychosis
Oct 19, 2026
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TL;DR

The first spacecraft to try to put a rover on a moon of Mars is on its way. Japan's MMX launched Oct. 19 to land on Phobos, the larger of Mars's two moons, scoop up at least 10 grams of its dust, about two teaspoons, and bring it to Earth in 2031. That would be the first sample ever returned from the Mars system, and it could settle what Phobos is made of, which matters because Phobos is a likely staging point for people going to Mars. The Mars headline people expected this year, uncrewed SpaceX Starships leaving for Mars, will not happen: the November launch window will pass with none, and SpaceX now says the Moon comes first. The road to Mars still runs through a step nobody has done at this scale, refueling a rocket in orbit. Until that works, the robots go first.

Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 6 milestones, starting with "Japan's MMX arrives at Mars by 2027"; and every source.

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