TL;DR
A fusion power plant is only useful if it can run for years, and that depends less on the dramatic plasma shots that make headlines than on the parts around them: walls that survive a constant hail of neutrons, sensors that can see inside a plasma hotter than the Sun's core, and computer models good enough to design a plant before it is built. On Nov. 2 the Department of Energy put $8.5 million into 28 small projects aimed at exactly those parts, pairing national labs and universities with 22 private fusion companies, and it opened next year's round with a new topic for early fusion pilot-plant designs. It is plumbing, not a physics breakthrough, and plumbing is what turns a lab record into a power station. Our odds that a fusion machine puts electricity on a U.S. grid: chance it works 75%, likely by 2031. For the full odds and the timeline of breakthroughs between today's grants and fusion power on the grid, subscribe.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.



