TL;DR
The rockets catching up with SpaceX on landing boosters this year are Chinese, not American. In 2026 a state-run Long March 10B booster was caught at sea and a private Zhuque-3 booster set down on land. SpaceX's two U.S. challengers in reusable launch are both delayed: Blue Origin's New Glenn has not flown since April and is rebuilding its only pad after an explosion, and Rocket Lab's Neutron has slipped to 2027. Blue Origin is still planning big, asking permission to fly up to 50 times a year from one pad. If those plans and China's landings turn into routine reuse, SpaceX would face real competition in cheap, reusable launch. For now, neither Chinese booster has been reflown, and reflying is the step that actually cuts costs.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 5 milestones, starting with "New Glenn flies again by 2026"; and every source.