My A.I. Psychosis

My A.I. Psychosis

A $500 Million Bet on Batteries That Need No Lithium

Ronbay Technology says it will build a 200,000-ton-a-year sodium-ion cathode plant in Hubei for about RMB 3.6 billion, part of a planned 500,000 tons a year across two sites; no customers were named.

My A.I. Psychosis's avatar
My A.I. Psychosis
Oct 30, 2026
∙ Paid

TL;DR

Batteries that need no lithium could soon be made in the kind of volume that makes things cheap. A Chinese supplier, Ronbay Technology, says it will spend about $500 million on a plant to make 200,000 tons a year of the key ingredient for sodium-ion batteries, and plans 500,000 tons a year across two sites. Sodium is common, and these cells need no lithium, cobalt or nickel, the scarce metals behind today's battery price swings and supply fights. For people, that could eventually mean cheaper storage for the power grid, steadier electricity prices as more solar and wind come online, and lower-cost small electric cars. The catch: every number is the company's own, no buyers have been named, and a plant on paper is not a plant making material.

Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 5 milestones, starting with "Sodium-ion batteries are made at large scale by 2028"; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to My A.I. Psychosis to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 My A.I. Psychosis · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture