TL;DR
The AI jobs story has started, and it starts at the bottom of the ladder. Young workers in the jobs most exposed to AI are being hired less, not fired more, and the gap is now measurable in payroll records. Inside one AI lab, juniors went from about one in four new technical hires to about one in eleven in a year. The Federal Reserve is hearing the same thing from employers in five of its 12 districts. What has not happened is mass layoffs: overall employment barely moved. For people starting careers, the first rung is getting narrower. For everyone else, the question is whether that narrowing climbs the ladder.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 5 milestones, starting with "Another major company publishes a study of how AI agents changed its own hiring by 2027"; and every source.