TL;DR
If AI is going to run in orbit, on satellites bathed in constant sunlight, a fleet of small satellites will have to act like one big computer, passing jobs to whichever machine has the room and a working link at that moment. A start-up called Satlyt says it has now tested software that does exactly that, in a NASA-funded project with the University of Houston. Of the four computers in the test, one was a real machine in orbit and three were simulated, and the results are the company's own. Our odds that several real computers in orbit share computing jobs in a test: 85%, likely by 2028. Still, the chips, the money and the launches for data centers in space are already moving, and this is the first time the "who does which job" layer has been tried off the ground at all. For the full odds and a timeline of the steps that could put working data centers in orbit, subscribe.
Below the line, for paid subscribers: The full story: where it stands, how we got here and what's dated next; our Odds board on 6 milestones, starting with "Several real computers in orbit share computing jobs in a test"; our labeled speculation on what it adds up to; and every source.